Albertan koronasyksy 2021


Suomen rajoitusten nopeatahtista avaamista verrattiin somessa Kanadan Albertan provinssiin. Siellä kehittyi koronatoimien lopettamisen jälkeen ja rokotekattavuuteen luottaen hätätila, kun sairaalahoitoiset covid-19-tapaukset lisääntyivät vauhdilla ja terveydenhuolto ylikuormittui.

Kiinnostuin asiasta, mutta en löytänyt mistään tarkempaa aikajanaa, miten tilanne kehittyi Albertassa. Koostin sellaisen uutislähteistä tähän oheen.

Olen poiminut nuo Albertan sairaalahoitoisten luvut tässä olevasta grafiikasta.

(Suora vertailukelpoisuus sikäli huono, että Albertassa on vain 4.3 miljoonaa asukasta ja varmaankin sairaalahoitoon/teholle pääsyn kriteerit eri jne, mutta ehkä silti suuntaa antavaa).

1.7.21

Maskeja suositellaan enää julkisissa kulkuneuvoissa ja kaupungin tiloissa. Lähde

“On Thursday, Alberta will enter stage three of its reopening plan. Masks will only be required by the provincial government in some instances like public transit and inside city-owned buildings.”

19.7.21

Isot tapahtumat jo sallittu. Ihmisillä ei enää motivaatiota hakea rokotetta, koska on tunnelma ”korona on ohi”. (Rokotekattavuus 59,7%)  Lähde

“As of Monday, 74.8 per cent of those eligible have received one dose of vaccine; 59.7 per cent of those eligible are fully vaccinated.”

However, now that the province has re-opened, indoor gatherings and large-scale events, such as the Calgary Stampede, have been permitted, and Muhajarine said there is little motivation for the unvaccinated.

“It’s a big ask now for people, to ask people to get their first shot or second shot because they feel like we have put COVID-19 behind us.”

69 SAIRAALASSA, 27 ICU=intensive care unit, teho-osasto (Suomessa vastaava n.16.9.: 98, joista tehohoidossa 20)

29.7.21

Altistuneiden karanteeni poistuu, vähennetään jäljitystoimintaa (rokotekatt.64%) Lähde

“Alberta on Wednesday said it is dropping quarantine requirements for close contacts of COVID-19 cases, easing public health measures just as neighboring British Columbia reinstates a mask mandate in one region to tackle surging cases.

Quarantine for close contacts will shift from being mandatory to recommended from Thursday and Alberta is also scaling back contact tracing. The changes come as new cases in the province jump to 194, up from 134 the previous day.

Chief medical officer Deena Hinshaw told a news conference the province needs to scale back the focus on COVID-19 so resources can be deployed to tackle other respiratory illnesses that are likely to climb in the fall.

“COVID is not over, we just need to integrate how we manage it into how we manage other illnesses as well,” she said, while urging Albertans to get vaccinated. So far, 64% of Albertans have had two shots.”

3.8. 76 sairaalassa, 23 ICU

11.8.

Koronatestiin ei pääse ilman lääkärin lähetettä, eristystä suositellaan muttei vaadita, altistuneille ei ilmoiteta altistuksesta.

Pediatrien yhdistys varoittaa, että ilman torjuntatoimia ja seurantaa, epidemia tulee pahenemaan rokottamattomien ja lasten joukossa. Lähde

“from Aug. 16, testing will no longer be routinely available to people with COVID-19 symptoms, unless they are referred by a family physician, or require hospital care. Additionally, isolation will be recommended, but no longer required by law for people who receive a positive COVID-19 test result. Close contacts will no longer be notified by official contact tracers; that responsibility will fall to the patient.

– – -reiterated it was necessary to learn to live with the virus.

Testing every person with a runny nose or sore throat is an extraordinary measure that we cannot sustain, particularly through the respiratory virus season,” she wrote.

Furness said that there’s no suggestion that widespread COVID-19 testing must be maintained forever, but the emerging delta variant, and lack of vaccinations for kids under 12 must be taken into account.

“We need to get our way through this variant and we need to get our kids inoculated,” he said.

“Once we’ve got those two milestones, then I think we can start having conversations about how to move past being worried about COVID.”–

On Monday, the Alberta Medical Association’s Section of Pediatrics sent a letter urging Premier Jason Kenney to delay the changes until 85 per cent of all Albertans had been fully vaccinated. Currently, just under 57 per cent of Albertans are fully vaccinated.

“As we near the start of the school year, a lack of mitigation and monitoring measures will result in a situation where the fourth wave will cause COVID-19 to spread quickly throughout unvaccinated populations and children,” the letter warned.

17.8. 145 sairaalassa, 48 ICU (Suomessa ~vastaava nyt 16.10.: 192, joista tehohoidossa 36)

 

25.8.21

Tutkijat vaativat torjuntatoimia, hallitus ei vielä tee mitään Lähde

“While health officials in British Columbia are taking emergency action as COVID-19 case numbers continue to climb, Alberta has made no changes to its health protocols amid a strengthening fourth wave. – – –

Gasperowicz is calling on the government to bring back some health restrictions to prevent further deaths and severe outcomes or wait for certain metrics to get worse.

Alberta is expected to remove virtually all remaining measures in late September, a delay of the original plan to lift virtually all testing, tracing and isolating measures by Aug. 16.”

1.9.

400 sairaalassa, 116 ICU

 

3.9.21

TORJUNTATOIMIA ALETAAN PALAUTTAMAAN: Maskipakko, baarirajoituksia (rokotekatt.70%). Teho-osastokapasiteetti 95% täynnä. Lähde

Starting Saturday, masks will be required in indoor spaces and licensed establishments will need to end liquor sales at 10 p.m.

Intensive care unit capacity is currently at 95 per cent provincewide and 97 per cent in Edmonton.

“It is clear that we are at risk of exceeding our province’s ICU capacity if we do not make changes to our approach now,” Hinshaw said.

“I wish we didn’t have to do this, but this is not a time for moral judgements — this is a time to get people vaccinated. We have done everything we can,” Kenney claimed, pointing to previous vaccination efforts.

“If you just haven’t gotten around to it, for the love of God please get vaccinated now — and if you do, we will pay you $100.”

But he acknowledged that Alberta’s vaccination rates are about five percentage points below the Canadian average.

“That is why we’re getting hit harder. If the choice is between a sustained crisis in our hospitals or, God forbid, widespread restrictions, which I want to avoid at all costs, or finding some way to get the attention of those vaccine latecomers, we’re going to choose the latter,” said Kenney.

Just over seventy per cent of Albertans 12 and older have received both of their doses of vaccine, and 78.3 per cent have received at least one dose.”

Kuvan lähde ja tarkka kuva CBC:n kotisivuilla.

15.9.

704 sairaalassa, 222 ICU

 

16.9.21

PM pyytää anteeksi, etätyöpakko 2 kk:ksi, käyttöön rokotepassi Lähde

“The leader of the Canadian province of Alberta apologized Wednesday for his handling of the pandemic and said he is reluctantly introducing a vaccine passport and imposing a mandatory work-from-home order two months after lifting nearly all restrictions.

Alberta declared a public health emergency as Premier Jason Kenney said hospitals might run out of beds and staff in intensive care units within 10 days. – –

“The government’s first obligation must be to avoid large numbers of preventable deaths. We must deal with the reality we are facing. We cannot wish it away,” Kenney said.

Lähde:
“If measures are let go of too quickly, and vaccination rates aren’t going up fast enough … you’re giving room for this virus to accelerate if your vaccine coverage isn’t moving up faster than your reopening or easing measures.”

The province, which eased nearly all public health restrictions as part of its July 1 “Open for Summer” plan, is in the national spotlight for its current handling of the fourth wave.

On Wednesday, Premier Jason Kenney apologized to Albertans for his decision to peel back protections. He reintroduced a state of emergency and several public health measures including a vaccine passport and mandatory work-from-home rules, unless an employer determines a physical presence is required. – –

She put it plainly:  “Don’t be complacent.”

“When you don’t have that many cases, the simpler measures such as masking, particularly indoors, spacing and other measures … can be done now to prevent an upsurge that can overwhelm the health system,” she said.

“If you are experiencing these kinds of surges, vaccines won’t be fast enough. You got to add on the additional measures.

 

30.9.

827 sairaalassa, 264 teholla

2.10.21

Yksilöiden vastuuttamiseen nojaavan strategian & rokottamattomien syyttelyn arvellaan lisänneen rokotevastaisuutta entisestään Lähde

“Alberta was reckless in dropping all restrictions and declaring the pandemic over. Jason Kenney infamously declared that we were in the post-pandemic era, that COVID was no longer a risk and basically threw caution to the wind — that was a grave misstep,” he said.

“But what made things much, much worse is the inability to respond to the data that demonstrated a rising number of cases.”

Manitoba has a key difference: it created a vaccine certificate in June, months before other provinces, which pushed its vaccination rate higher.

Alberta resisted implementing a vaccine passport system until late last month, but instead attempted to incentivize vaccination by offering unvaccinated residents $100 and entry into a $1-million draw to get the shot. Both had little impact on vaccine uptake.

“It didn’t increase vaccination, but it also cost us time when there could have been fewer new cases as a result of unvaccinated individuals frequenting indoor public spaces and infecting other people,” said Schwartz. – – –

Wong says the messaging from policymakers and public health officials in the Prairies throughout the pandemic has been one of “individual responsibility” when it comes to following guidelines, getting tested or getting vaccinated.

“Now the narrative is very much pushing the societal blame and anger and frustration away from, frankly, policymakers and toward people who are unvaccinated,” Wong said. In his view, the “shifting of blame” may have further increased vaccine hesitancy.

“Even when the whole healthcare system is literally collapsing you’re just not going to get any kind of buy-in at a societal level anymore to actually care.”

“This is not a pandemic of the unvaccinated, this affects absolutely everybody — it’s everybody whose surgeries are cancelled, and who won’t have access to urgent surgeries if they get into an accident, or if their appendix bursts or if they have an aneurysm,” Schwartz said.

*************

5.10.21

Testaus-jäljitys tuodaan takaisin kouluun, 2x/vko kotitestit koululaisille  Lähde

“The Alberta government is bringing back contact tracing in schools and plans to provide rapid testing kits to help parents in outbreak areas test their children twice a week at home.

Education Minister Adriana LaGrange announced Tuesday that schools will start notifying close contacts of students who were infectious at school.

The shift comes with the province in the midst of a deadly fourth wave of COVID-19 that has overwhelmed the province’s hospitals and ICUs and forced the government to accept medical help from the Canadian Armed Forces, the Red Cross and other provinces.”

Tilanne 15.10.

Edelleen n. 1000 sairaalapotilasta, edelleen useita suojatoimia, mm. pakolliset maskit Lähde

  • “16 new deaths reported Friday.
  • Alberta reported 1,051 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday out of 14,054 tests.
  • The total number of active cases in Alberta is 12,978.
  • The positivity rate was 7.5 per cent.
  • There were 1,000 people being treated for COVID in hospital. Of those, 229 were in ICU.
  • Alberta is reporting an R-value below 1. The R-value is the average number of COVID-19 infections transmitted by each diagnosed case.”

Maskipakko

“Masks are mandatory:

  • in all indoor public spaces, workplaces and places of worship, including eligible businesses that implement the Restriction Exemption Program
  • for employees in all indoor work settings, except while alone in work station
  • for all students in Grades 4 and up, plus staff and teachers in all grades”

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VERTAILUA

(Vertailujen kalenteriajankohdat eri: Suomen epidemia ja toimet n. 2 kk jäljessä) 

Suomen kannalta positiivisia eroja:

  • ”Alkupäivinä” eli 19.7. Albertassa oli n. 7%-yksikköä matalampi rokotekattavuus yli 12-vuotiaissa kuin Suomessa 25.9. (59,7% vs. 66.7), tosin jo 29.7. 66% albertalaisista oli 2 annosta. Onko rokotekattavuudella alussa väliä, jos se ei nouse?
  • Albertassa koronapassi käyttöön vasta syyskuussa jo julistetun hätätilan ollessa päällä, Suomessa jo lokakuussa 16.10. (MUTTA huom. alaviite*)
  • Maskipakkoa lievennettiin jo 1.7., Suomessa puolestaan aavistuksen myöhemmässä rokotekattavuuden vaiheessa

Suomen kannalta epäedullisia eroja/yhtäläisyyksiä: 

  • Karanteeni- ja jäljityskäytännöissä Albertassa tehtiin muutoksia vasta myöhemmin
  • 16.8. Albertassakin lopetettiin testaus ja vain lääkärin arviolla pääsi testiin
  • Myös Suomessa mediassa on ollut paljon rokottamattomien syyllistämiseen liittyvää puhetta, vrt tulkinta siitä että Albertassa se vähensi rokoteintoa entisestään. Riskinä on, että tarvittavia toimia ei oteta käyttöön, kun kaikki keskittyvät rokottamattomien haukkumiseen, rokotetut eivät tajua itsekin voivansa levittää virusta oireettomana ja rokottamattomia ei enää kiinnosta panostaa yhteiseen hyvään kaiken kielteisen huomion jälkeen.

* Missä määrin Suomen koronapassi eroaa Albertassa käyttöön otetusta? Albertan passi ilmeisesti koskee ravintoloita, yökerhoja, kasinoja, konsertteja ja kuntosaleja kaikkina aikoina vuorokaudesta, mutta toimintaa voi jatkaa myös ilman passia rajoituksin. Rajoitukset näyttäisivät olevan paljon tiukempia kuin Suomessa: yksityiset kokoontumiset ilman rokotusta on kielletty ja rokotuksen kanssa alle 10. Ravintolassa saa tavata ilman rokotusta, jos 1/3 kapasiteetista ja saa istua vain perheen kanssa.  https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-public-health-actions.aspx
Koronapassinkin lisäksi on pakolliset maskit. (Kiitos Kaisa Sauriolle tarkistuksista!)


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